Some fans were worried about what the Nittany Lions’ hard-fought loss to Oregon in Saturday night’s Big Ten championship may mean for their seeding in the College Football Playoffs. They had no idea that twelve hours later there would be good news.
One of the clear victors on Selection Sunday was Penn State. The CFP committee gave the Nittany Lions an advantageous draw for both the first round and a possible run at the national championship because of the 12-team format’s design.
Penn State fell just one position to No. 4 in the final CFP rankings after falling to Oregon in a close game. Importantly, the Nittany Lions maintained their lead over Ohio State and Notre Dame, which improved their chances of competing in the first 12-team field.
The sixth seed went to Penn State. Beaver Stadium will host the Nittany Lions’ first-round matchup with SMU, the final at-large team in the tournament and the 11th seed. As time ran out, the Mustangs lost to Clemson on a field goal in the ACC championship game. SMU remained in the bracket, keeping three-loss Alabama out of the running, while Clemson secured an automatic spot.
In the end, SMU merited a spot in the playoffs. It’s the top 12 teams in the nation by the time you reach this stage. There aren’t any shortcuts. However, it’s difficult to argue that any team without a bye has it better than James Franklin’s squad when you consider Penn State’s route to at least the CFP semifinals.
The Nittany Lions were 7 1/2 points ahead of SMU at the start of the game. Penn State, one of the top teams in the nation playing in front of one of the greatest stadiums in the nation, will play Boise State in the CFP quarterfinals in the Fiesta Bowl if it defeats the Mustangs.
Ashton Jeanty, a running back for the Broncos, is a Heisman Trophy contender. They have won all of their games since suffering a three-point loss to Oregon in September. However, it is advantageous for Penn State to have ranked higher than SMU and Boise State, which finished at No. 10 and No. 9, respectively, in the final CFP rankings.
Contrast that with the club that is ranked right behind Penn State. In the first round, Notre Dame is favored by 7 1/2 points at home against Indiana. However, the Fighting Irish must play Georgia, the SEC champion and the victors of two of the last three national championships, if they prevail.
Examine the paths taken by Ohio State and Penn State. When playing Tennessee at home, the Buckeyes are 7 1/2 points ahead. They must play Oregon, the unbeaten Big Ten champions, if they prevail. I won’t go so far as to say that Oregon’s road to the national championship is more difficult than Penn State’s. Even so, receiving the first-round bye is important.
With the possible exception of Texas, none of the teams competing in the first round have a more realistic route to the semifinals. The Longhorns may play Arizona State in the quarterfinals after hosting Clemson, the only team in the tournament with three losses.
However, Texas would play Tennessee, Ohio State, or Oregon in the semifinals. The Nittany Lions would play Georgia, Notre Dame, or Indiana in the semifinals if Penn State defeated SMU and Boise State. Of those two routes, one is easier to handle than the other.
Once more, no team will have an easy path. SMU can surprise Penn State with its potent attack and strong defensive front. This season, Jeanty has apparently run for 200 yards on everyone, and Penn State isn’t exempt from that.
However, Penn State couldn’t have asked for a better draw from Sunday’s CFP bracket unveiling in terms of putting together a run and attempting to win a national championship.
Stories by
Johnny McGonigal
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