On Saturday, Penn State will travel northwest to Minneapolis to play Minnesota in an attempt to stay undefeated away from home.
Despite being placed fourth in the Week 13 College Football Playoff rankings, the Nittany Lions (9-1, 6-1 in the Big Ten) were ranked third in the Big Ten, one position ahead of the fifth-ranked, still-unbeaten Indiana, and behind No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Ohio State.
If the Nittany Lions defeat the Golden Gophers, they will move up in the Big Ten standings ahead of the Buckeyes and Hoosiers, who play in Columbus on Saturday. Minnesota (6-4, 4-3 in the Big Ten) is 4-2 at Huntington Bank Stadium but lost to Rutgers 26-19 on the road, ending their four-game winning streak.
The Nittany Lions have -850 odds to make the 12-team field at FanDuel Sportsbook, so a loss would not necessarily mean they are out of the running for the College Football Playoffs. However, since the Nittany Lions would have two conference defeats, a loss to Minnesota would end Penn State’s chances of winning a conference title in the fiercely competitive Big Ten.
Kings of the road
Fans may be disappointed as the Nittany Lions will play their final genuine road game in Minneapolis on Saturday. After defeating Purdue 49-10 on Saturday in West Lafayette, Indiana, Penn State is 4-0 away from Happy Valley, with three decisive victories and a plus-79 point margin.
However, against Minnesota, who have been raucous at home under eighth-year coach P.J. Fleck, the Nittany Lions might need that extra road skill. The Golden Gophers are 33-18 at home under Fleck and have won two in a row in Minneapolis. The only season under Fleck when they ended below.500 at home was the COVID-19-shortened 2020 campaign.
Penn State must therefore remain vigilant, particularly after sweeping Washington and Purdue in back-to-back victories. The Nittany Lions, who defeated USC 33-30 in overtime in Los Angeles, have the sixth-ranked scoring defense in the FBS (13.6 points per game) and have only given up more than 13 points in one road game.
Though they rank 12th in the US in points-against per game (17.7) and 11th in yards-against per game (296.4), the Golden Gophers are also a top defensive club. In its six home games this season, Minnesota has allowed only 15 points per game and has recorded two shutouts.
It should come as no surprise that the Nittany Lions are double-digit favorites on the point spread in this Big Ten game, according to the top Pennsylvania bookmakers.
Penn State vs. Minnesota odds
The Nittany Lions are a healthy 11.5-point favorite with -450 moneyline odds at BetMGM Sportsbook, meaning they have a more than 80% chance of winning. The betting odds for Minnesota to win three straight at home are +340. With an Over/Under of 45.5, Penn State is predicted to win 28.5–17.
Either in the same game or as a conventional parlay, a Penn State victory would constitute a strong parlay leg. However, we couldn’t recommend betting Penn State to win by itself because doing so will only yield $0.22 in profit for each dollar gambled.
Despite not having faced a team with the same skill and background as Penn State, Minnesota is 9-1 against a +11.5-point spread. Although the Gophers are annoying, it seems unlikely that the Nittany Lions will win by two touchdowns, and Penn State might leave the Twin Cities with a slim victory and still be in the running for the league championship.
Gopher hunting
Despite having an excellent defense, Minnesota’s offense has fallen short. The Golden Gophers are flirting with.500 rather than a national ranking since they are 14th in the Big Ten in yards per game (333.3) and 83rd in the country in points per game (26.7).
The Golden Gophers will face Penn State’s fifth-ranked running defense (98.6 yards-against per game), which is ranked 17th in the 18-team conference and 122nd in the FBS in terms of rushing yards per game (104.7). Although the Golden Gophers are 4-1 when they attempt more than 30 rushes this season, they have been held short of 100 running yards in five of their ten games.
The Golden Gophers’ rushing assault must be slowed, but the Nittany Lions must also target Minnesota quarterback Max Brosmer, who has been fired 23 times this season. Abdul Carter leads Penn State with eight sacks, four of which have occurred in the last three weeks, for a total of 25 this season.
When facing the opportunistic Golden Gophers defense, the Nittany Lions must also avoid turnovers. Minnesota boasts a plus-12 turnover margin, tied for eighth-best in the FBS, and has only turned the ball over eight times in its ten games, while Penn State has turned the ball over six times in its last five games.
Penn State will undoubtedly need to force at least two turnovers to cover the -11.5 spread, but Minnesota has only committed two turnovers in its last five games and hasn’t done it twice in a single game since its 27-24 defeat to Michigan on September 28.
Penn State vs. Minnesota betting
The Nittany Lions are the favorite of 97 percent of all bettors at DraftKings Sportsbook, despite the line shifting more than a full point in Minnesota’s favor on Tuesday from +/-12.5 to +/- 11.
It makes sense to bet on quarterback Drew Allar not to throw an interception if you think Penn State will cover by 11 points or more. Allar has only made five picks in three games this season, and the Nittany Lions have won 27.3 points on average when he doesn’t pass the ball to the opposition.
Therefore, if Allar can keep the ball safe, we might be able to predict the type of game in advance. However, since Nicholas Singleton has eight touchdowns and three in Penn State’s last five games, and the Golden Gophers have given up exactly two touchdowns per game, it is always a good prop bet to bet on him to score a touchdown at any moment.
Given that the Nittany Lions have allowed three passing touchdowns through the air in the last three games, Brosmer’s touchdown prop is worth a try if you think Minnesota will keep it close.
Penn State vs. Minnesota prediction
Aside from their overtime victory over USC, the Nittany Lions haven’t faced a significant challenge, but they might on Saturday. The Golden Gophers have been just successful enough in the run game to maybe keep Penn State’s defense off balance, and they are too strong defensively to get blown out.
Additionally, Minnesota might relieve some of the pressure on its struggling offense to run the ball the length of the field against Penn State’s formidable defense if it prevails in the turnover fight, which it has in the majority of its games this season.
Without a doubt, Penn State ought to prevail. However, Penn State supporters and possible wagerers might not enjoy this game because the Golden Gophers will probably give it their all on Senior Day in what should be a wild atmosphere for the season’s last game in Minneapolis. The Gophers are favored by +11.5 at Fanatics Sportsbook.
However, there are times in the Big Ten where you just have to get by and make progress, and the Nittany Lions should do that.