Thanks to the midweek Christmas break, the NFL season’s 16th and 17th weeks are jam-packed with football action. There will be NFL games on eight days out of ten, beginning with yesterday’s doubleheader.
It’s important to complete your study as soon as feasible on any given Sunday, Saturday, Monday, Wednesday, or Thursday, especially since sportsbooks are launching a ton of deals and boosts for the Weeks 16 and 17 overlap.
Best player prop bets for NFL Week 16
These are my best picks for prop bets on NFL Week 16.
Bijan Robinson over 88.5 rushing Yards (-110)
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Where to Bet: Sportsbook Bet365
Why: Expect Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to shield his rookie quarterback, especially against the Giants’ powerful pass rush, as Michael Penix Jr. is making his first NFL start in only his third overall game.
One of the league’s top running backs, Bijan Robinson, will probably have a lot of work to do as a result of this tactic. On around 17 carries, he averages 79 rushing yards per game. Robinson should get a lot more carries this week because of the Giants’ poor run defense, which gives up about 144 rushing yards each game.
Jalen Hurts anytime TD (-120)
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Where: Sportsbook Bet365
Why: Sportsbooks still consider Hurts to be a coin-flip possibility even though he leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns (14). He has scored eight of Philadelphia’s last nine games and in three consecutive games, including a Brotherly Shove touchdown in their November 14 victory over Washington.
This week, the Eagles quarterback should once more find the end zone from a distance.
Kyren Williams over 80.5 rushing yards (-110)
New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 1 p.m.
FanDuel Sportsbook is where
Why: With over 75 percent of the team’s rushing attempts this season, Williams has been the Rams’ main running back.
Williams is in a strong position to receive a higher percentage of touches because the infamous wind at MetLife Stadium is anticipated to interfere with the Rams’ passing game and the Jets’ strong secondary, led by Ahmad Sauce Gardner, may limit Puka Nacua. The Jets are more successful against the run, ranking 16th in rushing yards allowed per game (121.1), but they rank sixth in throwing yards allowed per game (193.9).
Williams may likely surpass 80 rushing yards against the Jets if he continues to receive 75 percent of LA’s carries.
Josh Allen anytime TD (+350)
Buffalo Bills against. New England Patriots, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Location for Betting: FanDuel Sportsbook
Why: With eight running touchdowns in Buffalo’s last five games, five of which have come in the last two games, Allen is now on a historic scoring spree. Allen is set up for another big day on the field and in the air as the Bills take on the Patriots, who are now in last place.
Having scored five career touchdowns versus New England, he regularly improves his performance in divisional games. This wager is worthwhile given the favorable odds and Allen’s recent increase in rushing touchdowns.
Brock Bowers over 68.5 receiving yards (-115)
Las Vegas Raiders against. Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Where: Sportsbook BetMGM
Why: Bowers is ready for a huge day against a Jaguars defense that leads the league in passing yards allowed (264.3 yards per game) now that quarterback Aidan O. Connell is back. Recently, the Jaguars let up a whopping 198 yards and nine receptions to Jets wide receiver Davante Adams.
Bowers still averages 69.1 yards per game and has eclipsed 65 yards in six games this season, despite falling short of 50 receiving yards in his last two games, which were mostly caused by quarterback Desmond Ridder’s troubles.
Although Jakobi Meyers (more than 67.5 receiving yards) is an attractive alternative, Bowers is a better pick because he has more targets, receptions, and yards per game than the Raiders’ top receiver.
De Von Achane over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
Sunday at 4:25 p.m., San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins.
Where: Sportsbook BetMGM
Why: Against the 49ers defense, which has had trouble stopping the run, Achane is expected to put on a spectacular show. San Francisco is ranked second in receiving yards allowed per game (181.0), but 15th in running yards allowed per game (117.8).
The impact of players like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle may be lessened by this pass defense, which might increase Achane’s percentage of both receiving and rushing plays. Achane, who has caught 70 passes this season, makes use of his route-running skills, frequently converting receptions into rushing plays with swing passes and screens.
Compared to more conventional running backs, he is especially dangerous versus the 49ers because of his dual-threat ability.
Rachaad White over 64.5 rushing + receiving Yards (-115)
Sunday at 8:20 p.m., Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys.
Where: Sportsbook DraftKings
Why: The Buccaneers starting running back is under more pressure because some sportsbooks have placed this total as high as 71.5 yards. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have struggled against the run, ranking 29th in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (136.1) and allowing the most rushing touchdowns in the league (22).
Bucky Irving, a rookie who is doubtful due to hip and back problems but is anticipated to play on Sunday night in Jerry World, shares carries with White. But two weeks ago against the Raiders, White had an incredible 109-yard, two-touchdown effort because Irving departed the game early.
White has surpassed 65 rushing and receiving yards eight times, including in three straight games, and averages 70 scrimmage yards per game even with Irving in the lineup. Expect White’s total to stay high on Sunday night as Tampa Bay’s offense relies heavily on him and Dallas plays out the thread.
Green Bay D/ST anytime TD (+1100)
Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints, Monday, 8:15 p.m.
FanDuel Sportsbook is where
Why: Xavier McKinney leads the NFL in interceptions with seven, and the Packers defense has shown playmaking ability, including a pick-six from Jaire Alexander. Still, this is a long shot play to balance out our prop predictions. With 14 interceptions so far this season, Green Bay is tied for sixth place in the league.
The fact that Spencer Rattler will start at quarterback for the Saints adds appeal to this wager. Opposing defenses have scored twice against the rookie quarterback in Rattler’s four games, including touchdowns from the Buccaneers and Broncos.
Even though defensive scores are improbable, a little wager on Green Bay’s defense to find the end zone might pay off handsomely, greatly increasing your initial investment.
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