If you’ve been following along as we have, you’ve probably learned a few things from each team’s (at least) four games. For example, the Miami Dolphins are in serious difficulty, whereas the Kansas City Chiefs are, as one might imagine, a top team. Even with journeyman Sam Darnold at quarterback, the Minnesota Vikings appear legitimate, and the Philadelphia Eagles’ defensive problems from the previous season might be returning.
Additionally, there are some very terrible NFL teams. Week 5 is an excellent place to start if, like us, you want to use that information. Here are a few of our top NFL picks for Week 5 along with the reasons we plan to target each one with the best lines from PA’s leading sportsbooks.
1. New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings: Under 40.5 Points
Where to locate them and the best odds: At BetMGM Sportsbook, -110
Why you should bet this:
Even when the sides travel across the pond for a match at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, defense shouldn’t suffer because these two clubs have always been among the greatest in football.
Given that Gardner is widely regarded as the best cornerback in football, it is reasonable to assume that he will be asked to hold No. 1 wide receiver Justin Jefferson in line. As a result, Minnesota will be unable to produce as much offensively and will continue to rely on Aaron Jones and the ground game to keep the game going.
Because of its offensive problems, New York also frequently plays ugly games, scoring 41 points or less in three consecutive games. The Vikings have given up 17 points or less in three of their four games against renowned opponents like the 49ers and Texans, and the Jets are scoring 19 points per game but have never scored more than 24 points.
Many other sportsbooks show this total at 40, so if it ends 23-17, 27-13, or somewhere in that region, it will push it. However, MGM is penalizing Under bettors an additional half point at no odds, which is why we advise focusing on the figure there.
2. Cleveland Browns Cover +3.5 at Washington Commanders
Where to locate them and the best odds: BetMGM Sportsbook’s -115
Why you should bet this:
For Washington, which has won three straight games and is coming off a 42-14 thumping of the Arizona Cardinals in Glendale, Arizona, this is reminiscent of the classic trap game.
Washington’s only home game was a 21-18 victory over the New York Giants in Week 2, and they are 0-1 against a -3.5-point spread. After reading weeks’ worth of clippings and knowing that their Beltway opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, is coming up next week, Jayden Daniels’ craze is intensifying, but are the Commanders mature enough to win a game as expected?
Additionally, the Browns defense should keep them in the game despite their offense having the second-fewest yards in the league and being among the worst in football through four games. However, Deshaun Watson might take advantage of Washington’s pass defense, which is only ranked 22nd in the league, after he started to get to know receiver Jerry Jeudy on Sunday in Las Vegas.
Even if the Browns might win by a wide margin, it is imperative to purchase that hook with no odds penalty because Washington -3 is the spread at several bookmakers.
3. Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots: Under 36.5 Points
Where to locate them and the best odds: Atbet365 Sportsbook -110
Why you should bet this:
As unbelievable as it may seem, this season’s offensive is worse than the Patriots’. Playing without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ shorthanded team is currently 32nd in points per game (11.3), and they have yet to take the lead in a game in four weeks.
With Tagovailoa and backup Skylar Thompson sidelined, Tyler Huntley anticipates starting for the second consecutive game. A week earlier, he led Miami to just 12 points against the Titans. Since the Patriots are only allowing 99.3 rushing yards per game, which is the ninth-best total in football, New England’s defense is also strong, particularly against the run.
Despite its offensive problems, Miami’s defense has been strong as well, allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game (282) and the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (162.5). The terrible New England passing offense should be shut down by the Dolphins.
The first to 14 might have enough to win, and the winning team’s punter might wind up being the most valuable player in this match. Therefore, we support betting on the under in what should be a 20–14 game at most.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers Cover -1.5 Point Spread vs Dallas Cowboys
Where to locate them and the best odds: At FanDuel Sportsbook, -115
Why you should bet this:
Despite being one of the NFL’s pleasant surprises this season, the Steelers’ poor start and Week 4 loss to the Indianapolis Colts (27–24) sealed their fate. Justin Fields took over the game in the second half (12 for 21, 182 yards, 1 passing touchdown; 7 rushes, 41 yards, and 2 rushing scores) and almost led Pittsburgh all the way back, so even though the Steelers lost 3-1, it might end up being in their best interests in the long run.
Conversely, the Cowboys recently defeated the New York Giants by a slim margin of 20–15, which might turn out to be the league’s most expensive victory of the season. Dallas lost No. 2 wide receiver Brandin Cooks and two of its best defensive players, Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, to injuries.
Lawrence was put on IR, and both Cooks and Lawrence are out. Although he hasn’t been formally ruled out of Sunday night’s game, Parsons is being called on a weekly basis. However, with Pittsburgh’s offensive production with Fields, losing those dependable defenders from a team that still lacks playmaking cornerback DaRon Bland is too much.
Since FanDuel had the spread one whole point less than rival books but the identical -115 odds as of Thursday afternoon, we would advise taking it there.
5. New Orleans Saints Cover +5.5 Points Kansas City Chiefs
Where to locate them and the best odds: At Caesars Sportsbook, -110
Why you should bet this:
Despite their 2-2 record, the Saints and Minnesota Vikings are deadlocked with a plus-57 point difference. Against two of the NFC’s top teams, the Eagles and Falcons, New Orleans has lost two straight games by exactly two points.
Despite having a 4-0 record, the Chiefs have barely won each of those games. Despite losing No. 1 wide receiver Rashee Rice to a knee injury, Kansas City rallied for a 17-10 victory after giving the Los Angeles Chargers a 10-0 lead.
It would be difficult to bet on New Orleans to upset the two-time defending champions, especially at Arrowhead, despite the fact that the Saints have the best offense in sport and the Chiefs are a patchwork team without Rice and running backs Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
However, given that Kansas City was just 5-4 at home during the regular season the previous year and has only won two home games by eight points this year, it would seem obvious to take New Orleans to remain within a touchdown.
We recommend placing the wager with Caesars because, once more, purchasing that extra half point is the play because some sportsbooks price the spread at +/-5 without the odds penalty.