On Monday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills will meet the Jacksonville Jaguars at Highmark Stadium in an attempt to stay undefeated.
Buffalo is 2-0 and recently defeated the Miami Dolphins 31-10 on Thursday night in Week 2. Despite bringing in new receivers like Curtis Samuel, Josh Allen is performing like an MVP candidate with five touchdowns (two rushing, three passing) and a 73.8 completion percentage.
In contrast, the Jaguars are 0–2 and have dropped their opening two games by a combined margin of eight points. With quarterback Trevor Lawrence only completing 51 percent of his throws, Jacksonville is tied for 25th place in points per game (15.0) and in the bottom three in yards per game (295.0, 22nd) due to Lawrence’s severe struggles.
Let’s get started with a comprehensive betting preview from the top PA online sportsbooks for this Week 3 encounter.
Protecting the house
With quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills have dominated their games in Western New York. Buffalo has won 28 of its last 35 regular-season games at Highmark Stadium and is 36-13 when Allen starts at home.
Since joining the NFL in 2018, Allen’s career home record is 89-37 in terms of touchdowns and interceptions, which is eight more touchdowns and four fewer picks than his road record. In contrast to his 2023 season, when he threw three interceptions in Buffalo’s Week 1 road loss to the Jets, Allen has yet to throw an interception this season.
Allen’s odds to throw are -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Jaguars had more over half of the interceptions.
Even though Allen is perhaps the best quarterback in football, Buffalo performs better when its offense is balanced, like it was in Week 2 against Miami. Including their 26-19 run-pass total on Thursday night, the Bills have a 59-42 run-pass ratio after two weeks.
Including their season-opening, comeback victory over the Cardinals 34-28, the Bills are 2-0 when they run more than they throw this season.
Although it might make things less favorable for a Buffalo victory, Allen might be tempted to take advantage of Jacksonville’s pass defense given their strong run defense (103.0 yards against per game, 11th) and poor pass defense (245.0 yards against per game, 30th)—something to take into account as a PA sports bettors.
Jaguars vs. Bills odds
Buffalo actually appears to have rather advantageous odds because they are just a touchdown favorite, even though the Bills are 2-0 against a -5.5-point spread this season and are scoring 32.5 points per game on average.
On October 8, 2023, in London, the Bills lost to Jacksonville 25–20, but they went 6-2 against a -5.5 spread in Orchard Park the previous season.
In his career, Allen is 3-5 on Monday nights and just 1-2 against Jacksonville. The near touchdown spread at BetMGM Sportsbook is even more likely to cover, though, given that Jacksonville will be missing a key weapon in Evan Engram due to a hamstring ailment.
Which Trevor?
Over the previous two seasons, one of the less well-known plotlines in the country has been Trevor Lawrence’s decline. The top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft is only 8-10 over the last two seasons, with 14 interceptions in those 22 games, despite missing a start last season due to a severe ankle injury.
In their first game against the Dolphins, Lawrence and the Jags offense got out to a scorching start, going 9 for 14 for 125 yards, leading two touchdown drives, and establishing a 17–7 lead at the half. However, as evidenced by his 46.1 second-half completion percentage over two games, Lawrence has been awful ever since, particularly in the second half.
Although there hasn’t been any action between Lawrence and former Bills receiver Gabriel Davis, this may be the scene of a Davis retaliation game.According to Caesars Sportsbook, Davis has a -127 chance of recording more than 38.5 receiving yards against his old team.
However, Jacksonville’s offense relies heavily on balance, and their chances of winning will be greatly impacted by getting Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. uncorked. 131.5 of the 310.5 yards Buffalo is giving up per game have come on the run.
It’s going to be a long night, though, if Jacksonville lags behind or worse, gets off track because of penalties or bad plays. Although Lawrence hasn’t thrown an interception yet, his lifetime average of 0.75 INTs per game indicates that he is due for one. The Bills are a ball-hawking secondary, as evidenced by their three interceptions, which tie them for third place.
Jaguars vs. Bills betting
Given that Bigsby is probably going to play, the Jags will have to run the ball. But Lawrence throwing an interception (-135 atBetRivers Sportsbook) looks like a great prop to target considering Jacksonville’s inability to stop the pass and Allen’s dual-threat potential.
Given that the Jags have given up two rushing scores in the last two weeks, Allen (-110) and Buffalo running back James Cook (+100) have unlucky by friendly anytime touchdown odds that make for solid parlay legs. Because of Allen’s big-play ability and Jacksonville’s inability to slow down the passing game, Allen’s passing-yards prop (Over/Under 230.5) is also very appealing.
Jaguars vs. Bills prediction
Some saw the Jaguars as a possible threat to bounce back and return to the postseason. This week is the perfect time for them to step up, especially considering that last year’s victory over Buffalo almost put their season back on track.
For the Jags, however, this is a nearly impossible location. Pick the Bills to cover and win on the moneyline.