By The Associated Press’s Mark Anderson
LAS VEGAS It will be bad news for BetMGM Sportsbook if Texas coach Steve Sarkisian raises the College Football Playoff trophy next month.
If any of the coaches at Arizona State, Indiana, or Boise State were to celebrate a championship with confetti flying everywhere around them inside Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium, it would be equally disheartening.
Wait, what?
All season long, Texas has drawn a lot of money to advance, but those other institutions offer the prospect of a sizable payout. With No. 1 and undefeated Oregon at 7-2 odds, the fifth-seeded Longhorns are the co-favorite at BetMGM; the other three are at least 40-1, and Georgia is the next favorite, just behind Oregon and Texas.
“People just want to have a flyer on these teams when they get hot,” stated Seamus Magee, trade manager at BetMGM. On some of these long-shot teams, they don’t want to be standing there without a ticket.
This year’s expansion of the playoff field from four to twelve teams led to an increase in college football wagering overall and a wider range of postseason wagering options. Not only did Arizona State, Boise State, and Indiana play important games in the last month, but also SMU, Army, and UNLV—a handful of teams that aren’t always in the running for the national championship.
According to Magee, it’s among the highest handles we’ve ever had on our national championship market. For starters, we are in more states, but the activity and betting trends we are witnessing feel much more intense than they have in previous years.
Riding with the Mustangs
According to Magee, BetMGM has seen activity on both sides of the first-round matchup between sixth-seeded Penn State and 11th-seeded SMU, although DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook have seen a lot of activity for the Mustangs.
Penn State went from being a 9-point favorite at DraftKings to 8 1/2 due to money on SMU.
They’ve struggled whenever they’ve faced a strong team. Regarding the Nittany Lions, Johnny Avello, director of race and sports operations for DraftKings, stated. SMU demonstrates their strength as a team and their ability to play well on both sides of the football field. In the game at all times. always manages to retaliate.
A large portion of the early betting was on underdogs overall, according to Joey Feazel, who manages football trading for Caesars.
According to Feazel, the dog money for these teams typically arrives late, particularly for the sharps (professional bookmakers).
Little love for the Broncos
With a first-round bye as the third seed, Boise State will be the underdog when it plays SMU or Penn State in the quarterfinals.
The Broncos entered the game as the top-ranked Group of Five champion, but according to Avello, that does not imply that they are among the top 12 teams in the country (AP and CFP put them No. 8 and No. 9, respectively). According to Avello, Miami, Colorado, and BYU—none of which advanced to the playoffs—would all be given preference over them.
According to Avello, there are other clubs that would be favored but aren’t in the playoffs. It simply isn’t how these playoffs operate.
Boise State’s inability to play on its blue carpet at home will be a significant disadvantage, according to Feazel. The Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona, will host Boise State’s quarterfinal matchup.
Feazel declared that everything will be neutral. For Boise, it’s a significant advancement in class.
How s the weather up there?
Three of the four first-round matchups will be in the Northeast and Midwest, rather than all of the games being played in warm-weather locations or climate-controlled domes as has been the case in previous postseasons.
That might not matter, though, as SMU travels to Penn State, Ohio State plays Tennessee at home, and Notre Dame faces in-state rival Indiana.
All four of the home clubs are favored by more than a touchdown according to BetMGM.
For some of these games, you have to consider the weather, Magee stated. Seeing a team like Tennessee that must go to Columbus, where the temperatures can drop significantly, will be amazing. SMU must travel to Happy Valley from Dallas. For many of those kids, that will undoubtedly be one of the coldest games they have ever played.
Hypothetical matchup
SMU was given the benefit of the doubt over Alabama because they were the final team in the field.
The Crimson Tide, who finished with three losses and missed the SEC championship game, had one more loss than the Mustangs. In the ACC championship, SMU lost to Clemson on a 56-yard field goal.
On a neutral field, the Tide would be favored by 5–10 points, according to the betting operators.
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