With the arrival of the 12-team College Football Playoff, bracketology will take on a new meaning. Week single week of the 2024 college football season, the CFP picture will shift. Therefore, we will examine the CFP environment and Penn State’s current position each week.
The Big Ten championship game will feature Penn State. But what does a victory or defeat vs Oregon imply for the future of the Nittany Lions in the College Football Playoffs?
When the fifth set of rankings is announced on Tuesday, we will know what the CFP committee thinks of Penn State. The whole 12-team bracket and the final CFP rankings will be made public on Sunday afternoon.
Here are my predictions for the final 12-team CFP, along with a thorough explanation of the playoff ramifications of Penn State’s Big Ten championship run.
Remember that the top five conference winners and seven at-large teams make up the 12-team CFP. The top four ranked champions receive first-round byes. A place in the field is assured for the top-ranked Group of Five winner.
After Week 14 and prior to Penn State’s Big Ten championship matchup with Oregon, PennLive reporter Johnny McGonigal provides his CFP predictions.McGonigal, Johnny
Prospects for Penn State
The CFP includes the Nittany Lions. It’s locked. It all depends on where Penn State ends up.
The Nittany Lions will receive a first-round bye and maybe the top seed in the field if Penn State defeats Oregon. Penn State was a little underdog at first. The Nittany Lions, meanwhile, have an intriguing 51% chance of defeating Oregon and earning a first-round bye, according to ESPN’s projections.
Fans naturally have a significant question, though: if the Nittany Lions lose, what will happen to their CFP seeding? Could they also lose out on hosting a game in the first round?
To be honest, we don’t have a specific response to that query. We don’t have any precedent for how the selection committee will handle Big Ten and SEC conference championship game losers because this is the first year of the 12-team playoff.
I don’t think the CFP committee would penalize the Nittany Lions sufficiently to prevent them from hosting a first-round game at Beaver Stadium, though, unless it’s a landslide defeat.
It is anticipated that Penn State will be rated third in Tuesday’s CFP rankings. Why would the committee penalize the Nittany Lions and place them behind Notre Dame, which isn’t vying for a conference title, if the game was close or a respectable loss in the Big Ten title game? Would they put Penn State behind a number of two-loss teams even if they did that? I don’t think that will occur. It would be illogical.
This prediction doesn’t tell you which team I think will win on Saturday because I haven’t looked at the Penn State vs. Oregon game yet. To hold onto its position, we will, however, take the nation’s top team for the time being. And I’ll choose Texas to defeat Georgia in a rematch during the regular season.
In my opinion, Penn State should receive the No. 5 seed in that situation at the very least. On Sunday afternoon, however, we’ll see how the CFP selection committee decides to proceed.
Overall impressions
Boise State currently has the final first-round bye and is ranked as the fourth seed. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if UNLV defeated Ashton Jeanty’s Broncos in the Mountain West title game. Earlier in the season, the Rebels played Boise close. UNLV’s offense and Hajj-Malik Williams can stay up.
I believe SMU still merits a spot in the CFP even if it loses to Clemson in the ACC championship game. The Mustangs aren’t receiving enough recognition, despite having a resume that is comparable to Notre Dame’s. I therefore hope SMU defeats Clemson in order to avoid the argument regarding its inclusion and more vexing SEC hypotheticals.
Speaking of the SEC, it appears that a team with three losses will be admitted. In fact, I don’t mind at all. After dropping its previous three games to Syracuse and Georgia Tech, Miami doesn’t deserve to make it. The offense of Miami is explosive. However, its defense is weak, and Mario Cristobal lacks game management skills. The Hurricanes ought to have left.
The decision then becomes which SEC team should enter the three-loss bracket. Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Alabama are vying for our attention. Following their victory over Clemson, the Gamecocks are currently playing their best ball. But for my prediction, I’ll think about what the committee will do, and I believe they’ll include Bama.
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Johnny McGonigal
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