In Week 5 of Thursday Night Football, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel west to play the Atlanta Falcons, with first place in the NFC South on the line.
The Bucs (3-1) are one game ahead of the Falcons and Saints and hold sole possession of first place in their division. After another outstanding performance by quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is starting to establish himself as a legitimate NFL MVP contender despite his +3000 odds at Caesars Sportsbook, Tampa Bay defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 33-16 on Sunday. Mayfield went 30 for 47, 347 yards, and two touchdowns.
Nevertheless, the Falcons are chasing the Bucs and were the preseason favorites to win the South.
Notwithstanding a lackluster performance from Kirk Cousins (21 for 35 238 yards) and Bijan Robinson (7 carries, 28 yards), Atlanta defeated New Orleans 26-24 on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium for its second victory in three weeks. The best betting odds for TNF and Week 5 are available at Pennsylvania’s leading sportsbooks.
The division’s winner will go unblemished, and in the Falcons’ case, that number might rise to 2-0.
TDs not FGs
With a wealth of well-known players like Cousins, Robinson, star wide receiver Drake London, and top tight end Kyle Pitts, the Falcons have a potent offense.
Atlanta still has trouble getting the ball into the end zone, though. The Falcons have only five offensive touchdowns in four games, including just one from their lead-back Robinson, and rank 22nd in the NFL in terms of points per game (18.8).
The Falcons might not be in the running for the division if it weren’t for Yunghoe Koo, their incredibly accurate kicker who is 9 for 9 on field goals. Koo has 33 of the team’s 75 points and converted four field goals against the Saints on Sunday, including the game-winning 58-yarder.
Atlanta’s excellent defense has kept them in games, but they will need to score touchdowns to defeat the fierce Bucs. Tampa Bay averages 30 points per game in victories, despite having the 11th-best point average in football (24.3 points per game).
The Bucs have defeated the Commanders and Jayden Daniels, as well as the Lions and Eagles, two 2023 playoff teams. Tampa Bay’s defense has also been outstanding, particularly when it comes to stopping the pass, as evidenced by the fact that they only allow 220.5 passing yards a game and one throwing touchdown.
Robinson might see a lot of action following his light effort against the Saints since the Tampa Bay defense has been vulnerable to the run. Although his seven attempts marked a career low in games he started, Tampa Bay is tied for third-most rushing touchdowns (7) with the Dolphins, behind the Cardinals and Cowboys, and 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards against per game (131.5).
Buccaneers vs Falcons odds
With Atlanta as a modest -125 moneyline favorite and offering -1.5 points for the spread, the game is essentially a pick-em. With just a two-point victory over the Saints to their name, the Falcons are 1-2 at home. Their two wins have come by a combined total of three points.
Three of their last four encounters have been decided by six points or less, making this series close over the last two seasons. But, with at least 47 points scored in the last eight games at Georgia Dome/Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the games in Atlanta have been high-scoring affairs.
The Under is a modest -112 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Over/Under is set at 43.5. Cousins has infamously struggled in primetime; he is 4-6 on Thursdays and has a 21-12 TD-to-INT ratio. This season, he has thrown as many picks as touchdowns (4), but his 68.9 completion percentage is marginally better than his 66.9 lifetime average.
However, there should be at least 44 points in the game despite Atlanta’s scoring difficulties and each team’s underappreciated defense.
Let Baker Cook
Keep your eyes away. Browns supporters, but since joining the Bucs last season, Mayfield has emerged as one of the NFL’s most effective quarterbacks. Mayfield is averaging roughly 240 passing yards per game and completing 65.5% of his passes in 21 starts in red, black, gray, and pewter. In addition, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 36–12.
With eight passing touchdowns and an eighth-highest completion percentage (70.5) in the NFL this season, Mayfield has been absolutely dominant. Even if Vegas hasn’t fully embraced him yet, it’s safe to say that he is a contender for MVP given that the Buccaneers are tied for 26th in running attempts (94) and 25th in rushing yards (384).
Sadly—or luckily, depending on your point of view—Mayfield’s effectiveness hasn’t drawn much attention from the NFL community, as he is tied for the 12th-shortest odds to win MVP. However, a strong showing on Thursday would undoubtedly help Mayfield’s chances, particularly while facing the Falcons’ 12th-ranked pass defense (198.8 yards per game).
Buccaneers vs Falcons betting
The Over/Under 239.5 is one of the Baker Mayfield prop bets for throwing yards. This is quite alluring since, particularly if the Bucs fall behind, the game may be pass-heavy. Although the Falcons’ run defense (145.5 yards per game) could be exploited, Tampa Bay could establish the run to set up deep shots in the passing game. He is 2-2 against this number, including in the Bucs’ first road start.
Tyler Allgeier’s rushing prop (Over/Under 32.5, -130) is a must-bet for the Atlanta side, particularly when same-game-parlay betting is involved. Despite being 2-2 against that total, Allgeier outperformed Robinson against the Saints, gaining 60 yards on eight carries.
Although that statistic was unavailable as of Tuesday morning, Robinson’s over for attempts would be worth taking into consideration given Atlanta’s potential to take advantage of Tampa Bay in the running game. However, if it were 12.5 or less, the Over would be worth the selection.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction
Given that the Bucs have won the NFC South for three consecutive years, this would be a game-changing victory for the Falcons. However, Atlanta’s pass rush is insufficient to impact Mayfield, who has been fired fifteen times, despite their strong defense.
With four sacks, the Falcons are worst in the NFL, so Mayfield should have plenty of opportunity to tear them up. Tampa Bay might win by double digits if Baker cooks and the Falcons fail in the red zone once more.
Even while playing the fierce Saints and Chiefs, Atlanta hasn’t let up 30 points in a game yet, and Thursday might not be the same. However, if Koo becomes the mainstay of the Falcons offense, that might not matter either.
Falcons 16, Buccaneers 28