Football fans surely had this Detroit vs. San Francisco game marked on their calendars going into the season because it would have a big impact on the playoffs.
But it couldn’t be further from the reality. The 49ers had a season hampered by injury and had their sights set on the upcoming campaign since October, while the Lions, at 13-2, had long since secured a postseason berth.
Best prop bets and odds for Monday Night Football
The top Pennsylvania sportsbooks for these props are listed below, along with our top picks for Monday Night Football between the Lions and Niners!
FanDuel: Brock Purdy Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-113)
DraftKings: Jahmyr Gibbs 93.5+ Rushing Yards (-110)
FanDuel’s Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-114)
Brock Purdy Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-113)
FanDuel Sportsbook is where
Why: Brock Purdy will be free to throw as much as he wants on Monday night because Detroit’s secondary is currently one of the NFL’s most ravaged teams.
Even though teams have only thrown the ball 31.3 times per game (the tenth-fewest attempts in the NFL) over the last three games, the Lions have given up the third-most passing yards.
Due in large part to its injury problems, Detroit has unsurprisingly allowed the most yards per completion in the NFL during that run of games.
I anticipate that the Niners will be playing from behind for the majority of the game because the 49ers have nothing left to play for after being formally eliminated from playoff contention. Consequently, Purdy’s passing volume is enhanced.
Detroit must prevail in order to prevent Philadelphia from backdooring it for the top seed in the NFC, which it has yet to secure. Even though the Lions are in charge of their own fate, Purdy will continue to accumulate a significant amount of passing yards.
Given that the Niners are without Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey, Purdy should have little trouble surpassing his passing yards prop line of 255.5, which he has surpassed in two of his last three games.
Their run game is a complete mess, to put it simply.
Purdy can reach and pass his prop line because he has access to Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel, among other talented players in the skill positions.
Jahmyr Gibbs 93.5+ Rushing Yards (-110)
Where: Sportsbook DraftKings
Why? Because San Francisco’s secondary is second in opponent passing yards per game, sixth in opponent passing yards per completion, and tenth in opponent completion percentage, they have been outstanding throughout the season.
Additionally, according to PFF, the Niners secondary has the second-highest coverage grade in the league.
The Niners have limited opponents to an average of 156.3 passing yards per game over the last three games, but they haven’t performed as well in the trenches on that side of the ball.
The Niners, who have one of the worst run defenses this season, now have to contend with the formidable Lions offensive line and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs ended with 109 rushing yards on 23 attempts in the lone game this season that he has played without fellow running back David Montgomery.
Given the significant volume increase and the favorable matchup against a dreadful run defense, it is quite reasonable to anticipate that he will end with 90 or more rushing yards.
Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-114)
FanDuel Sportsbook is where
Why: For a significant amount of this season, the Detroit Lions secondary has been living by the maxim “bend, don’t break.”
Detroit keeps opponents to the second-fewest passing touchdowns per game in the NFL, despite giving up the sixth-most passing yards to opponents during the 2024 season.
In addition, the Lions’ opponent red zone scoring percentage (touchdowns only) is the fifth lowest. For the majority of the season, they have remained steadfast in the red zone.
This statistic becomes much more remarkable when traveling.
When playing away from Ford Field, the Lions actually held opponents to the lowest red zone scoring percentage (touchdowns only) in the NFL (29.41%).
Purdy might find it difficult to throw two or more touchdowns, even if we think he should have no trouble throwing for 256 yards or more.
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