The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, 10-6 ATS) take on the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8, 10-6 ATS) tonight to begin the last week of the NFL regular season.
If Pittsburgh wins and the Ravens lose, they can win the division, and if the Bengals win and lose to the Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos, they can try to qualify for the playoffs.
While the bookmakers edge toward the Bengals (-1.5) in the nightcap, the top Pennsylvania sportsbooks favor Baltimore by a massive 17.5 points for their matchup. It might be challenging to wager on game lines because there is so much uncertainty in these games. However, there are some intriguing player props in both of these competitions.
Anytime TD scorer prop bets for Bengals vs. Steelers
DraftKings: Ja Marr Chase anytime TD (-150)
BetRivers’ Khalil Herbert anytime TD (+135)
DraftKings: Najee Harris anytime TD (+115)
FanDuel: George Pickens anytime TD (+125)
FanDuel: Mike Gesicki anytime TD (+370)
Ja Marr Chase anytime TD (-150)
Where: Sportsbook DraftKings
Why: Despite having some contract concern at the beginning of the season, Ja Marr Chase has been the NFL’s most productive receiver. With 16 games played, the fourth-year wide receiver has set new career highs in every category and is in a strong position to become only the fifth player since 1990 to capture the wide receiver triple crown.
With 117 receptions, 1,612 receiving yards, and 16 touchdown catches, Chase leads the league. In 10 out of 16 games this season, he has caught at least one touchdown. Chase has made nine scoring grabs for Cincinnati in the past seven weeks.
His opponent is the Steelers defense, which has given up 14 wide receiver touchdowns this season (tied for seventh-fewest), six of which have occurred in the last four weeks (tied for fifth-most). Pittsburgh gave up two wide receiver scores last week.
Chase has caught four touchdown passes versus Pittsburgh in five games in his career, including one five weeks ago.
Khalil Herbert anytime TD (+135)
Where: Sportsbook BetRivers
Why: In before of this year’s trade deadline, the Bengals acquired Khalil Herbert from the Chicago Bears. The team’s loss of Zach Moss to the injured list before Week 9 made the move necessary. Since coming to Cincinnati, Herbert has not been used much. However, he was a key player in the Bengals’ overtime victory over Denver when Chase Brown suffered an ankle injury in Week 17.
Herbert earned 23 yards from four carries, including a 13-yard burst during overtime. Herbert converted a part-time position into 11 career touchdowns in three and a half seasons with Chicago, nine of them came on the ground.
Although the Bengals have a stingy run defense, Herbert will have plenty of opportunities if he plays the RB1 position. If the Ravens win their earlier game, the Steelers, who have given up rushing touchdowns in two of the previous three weeks, may limit the playing time of players like T.J. Watt.
Najee Harris anytime TD (+115)
Where: Sportsbook DraftKings
Why: Last week, Najee Harris crossed the 1,000-yard mark for the fourth time in his career with 74 rushing yards. Although the fourth-year running back’s season has been mixed, his Week 17 total yardage and average of 5.7 yards per carry were his highest since Pittsburgh’s victory against the Bengals in Week 13.
Harris scored one of his five rushing touchdowns this season and gained 75 yards on 16 runs in the game against Cincinnati. If he finishes the season with those five scores, it would be a lifetime low. Harris should get considerable run against a defense that is vulnerable, as Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin stated this week that he hasn’t considered resting his starters for this game.
The Cincinnati team Harris will be playing against has given up 15 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, which is tied for fifth-most. Running backs have scored three touchdowns on the ground and one through the air for the Bengals in the last four weeks.
In his seven career games against Cincinnati, Harris has scored six touchdowns, including at least one in each of the previous five meetings.
George Pickens anytime TD (+125)
FanDuel Sportsbook is where
Why: If Baltimore defeats the incompetent Cleveland Browns, the Steelers may not have much to gain from this game. The Ravens’ victory in Saturday’s early game would guarantee Baltimore the AFC North division and guarantee the Steelers a spot in the Wild Card round. But a victory over the Bengals would guarantee Pittsburgh the fifth seed and spare them from seeing the Ravens in the postseason.
George Pickens’ performance in Week 18 will be a spectacle if the Steelers hope to play the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round. After recovering from a hamstring injury last week, the gifted third-year receiver has to catch 100 yards in Week 18 in order to reach the 1,000-yard milestone.
The wide receiver caught three touchdown passes in six weeks before to Pickens’ injury, including one against Cincinnati in Week 13. This season, the Bengals defense has allowed 17 wide receiver touchdowns, including five in the last four weeks.
In his five career games versus Cincinnati, Pickens has scored four touchdowns, including three in the last two encounters.
Mike Gesicki anytime TD (+370)
FanDuel Sportsbook is where
Why: During Cincinnati’s victory last week, Mike Gesicki served as a useful outlet for Joe Burrow. After being largely silent for the previous five weeks, the seasoned tight end set new career highs in catches (10) and targets (12). Gesicki can locate the gaps in the Bengals’ passing attack when opponents focus on Chase and Tee Higgins.
The seven-year veteran has 22 career touchdown receptions, but he hasn’t made bettors at Pennsylvania’s best sportsbooks that support his anytime touchdown prop any money this season (going over just once). He recorded a nice five catches (on five targets) for 53 yards against the Steelers in Week 13 and scored two touchdown grabs in Cincinnati’s victory against the Raiders in Week 9.
This season, Pittsburgh has struggled to cover tight ends; the Steelers have given up seven touchdown catches to opponents, which is the eighth-highest number in the NFL. Pittsburgh has given up a league-high four tight end touchdowns in just the last four weeks.
Four different tight ends have entered the end zone in the last four games, and the Steelers have let an opponent score a touchdown in three of those games.
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