The San Francisco 49ers (6-9, 5-10 ATS) host the Detroit Lions (13-2, 10-5 ATS) at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, to wrap up the NFL Week 17 schedule. Despite San Francisco’s dismal and injury-plagued season, the Niners get to play postseason spoiler in this one.
With a bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs, the Lions go into this game in control of their fate as the top seed in the NFC. Detroit has the added advantage of seeking revenge after losing to the 49ers by 17 points in the conference championship game the previous season. With a victory and a loss to Minnesota this week, the Lions secure the #1 spot.
The Lions are favored by more than a field goal (-3.5) according to the top bookmakers in Pennsylvania, which is a sharp contrast to how the game used to open (Niners -4.5). The 50.5 points scored in this match are the most of any Week 17 match.
Anytime TD bets for Lions vs. 49ers on Monday Night Football
DraftKings: Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD (-235)
Anytime, TD (+100), Amon-Ra St. Brown. FanDuel
FanDuel: Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+170)
FanDuel: George Kittle anytime TD (+150)
FanDuel: Patrick Taylor Jr. anytime TD (+700)
Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD (-235)
Where: Sportsbook DraftKings
Why: After David Montgomery suffered a season-ending injury two weeks ago, Jahmyr Gibbs took over as Detroit’s starting running back. Gibbs recorded 154 yards from scrimmage and handled a season-high 24 touches in the Lions’ most recent game. When facing a 49ers club that has been eliminated from playoff contention, the second-year running back probably faces a similar workload.
This season, Gibbs has been among the top picks for anyone using anytime touchdown props. This season, he has scored four goals in the previous three weeks and found the end zone in 11 of 15 games. San Francisco’s defense, which has had trouble stopping running backs this season, will be his opponent.
This season, the Niners have tied for fourth-most rushing touchdowns with 15 given up to running backs. Additionally, they have given up two receiving touchdowns to the position. Over the past four weeks, San Francisco has allowed opponents to score one rushing touchdown on average per game.
Gibbs has hit the over in this prop bet in five of his previous six games overall, including the NFC Championship game against the 49ers last season, where he reached the end zone.
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Why: Amon-Ra St. Brown made six receptions on eight targets last week, including one for a score, continuing his stellar season. The fourth-year wide receiver set a new career high with that touchdown catch. He now seeks to increase that sum against a San Francisco secondary that might be vulnerable.
With 11 touchdown catches this season, St. Brown is third among all wide receivers in the league, only surpassed by Terry McLaurin of Washington (12) and Ja Marr Chase of Cincinnati (16). In 10 of his 15 games this season, St. Brown has exceeded a 0.5 anytime touchdown prop bet.
With a third-best passing yardage per game of 183.3, San Francisco is a statistically sound team playing opposition passing games. Over the last four weeks, the Niners have given up an average of one receiving touchdown per game, compared to 12 this season.
In six of his previous seven away games, St. Brown exceeded his anytime touchdown prop.
Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+170)
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Why: Deebo Samuel’s 2024 season hasn’t been particularly noteworthy. After being one of the league’s most prolific players for a significant portion of his career, Samuel has struggled with illness, injuries, and other issues this season, leaving bettors at Pennsylvania’s best sportsbooks unhappy.
Nevertheless, Samuel had a type of breakout performance last week against the Miami Dolphins, hauling in seven passes on nine targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. It was Samuel’s first touchdown since Week 6 against Seattle and his third of the season.
The Lions secondary he will be facing has only allowed 11 receiving touchdowns to wideouts this season, which is tied for third-fewest. However, Samuel frequently plays a variety of positions for San Francisco, including out of the backfield. Nine touchdown passes have been caught by 49ers running backs, which is a league high.
In his two career outings against Detroit, Samuel has only scored once.
George Kittle anytime TD (+150)
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Why: This season, George Kittle has been among the league’s most effective tight ends. Kittle has continued to be a target in San Francisco’s passing game as injuries have decimated the team’s other offensive weapons. Among all tight ends, he ranks second with 967 receiving yards and sixth with 68 catches.
Being a threat in the red zone has been Kittle’s greatest asset to the Niners offense this season. He has tied for sixth place among all positions and second among tight ends with 20 red zone targets this season. His eight red zone touchdowns, however, are tied for second-most among all positions and most among tight ends.
The Lions defense, which has allowed a league-low 528 yards to the position, has been strong against opposing tight ends. Only three receiving touchdowns have been given up by Detroit to tight ends, and two of those have occurred in the last three games.
Out of the 13 games this season, Kittle has exceeded his anytime touchdown prop in seven of them.
Patrick Taylor Jr. anytime TD (+700)
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Why: When it comes to running backs, the San Francisco 49ers have been forced to adopt a next-man-up approach. After Christian McCaffery and Jordan Mason, the team’s top two runners, were placed on injured reserve, star rookie running back Isaac Guerendo was sidelined due to hamstring and foot problems. This compelled a switch to practice squad running back Patrick Taylor Jr.
In Week 14, Taylor Jr. scored a rushing touchdown against the Chicago Bears, his only touchdown this season in a restricted number of opportunities. Over 87 career rushing attempts, the fourth-year running back has two touchdowns. Given that Guerendo only participated in a few practices this week, Taylor Jr. will undoubtedly get some action.
Detroit’s offense outpaces opponents and forces them to pass the ball, which is why he confronts a Lions defense that only gives up 98.5 rushing yards per game (fourth-best). Nevertheless, the Lions have let up 12 rushing touchdowns to runners on the other team.
Over the past four weeks, Detroit has given up seven running touchdowns, which is second in the NFL.
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