By Scott Bauer and Marc Levy, Associated Press
Pennsylvania’s Harrisburg. In the 2024 presidential election, Republicans put Pennsylvania and Wisconsin back in the victory column. They hope that momentum carries over into this year’s races, which will decide whether their state Supreme Courts maintain their left-leaning majority or shift to conservative control.
In situations involving abortion, election disputes, voting rules, and redistricting for Congress and respective state legislatures, the result can be crucial.
The amount of money coming in is predicted to surpass the more than $70 million that was spent by all the states on their Supreme Court campaigns two years ago.
Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla and a strong ally of President Donald Trump, has taken notice of the Wisconsin contest, which has sparked tensions over Trump’s pardoning of his supporters who stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
According to J.J. Abbott, who is the director of Commonwealth Communications, a progressive advocacy organization based in Pennsylvania, these elections appear to be far more prominent for both sides than they were previously.
Because state Supreme Courts play a crucial role in resolving contentious matters, state Supreme Court elections have become some of the most costly and fiercely contested in recent years.
Republicans are intent on flipping the courts
After Trump won both states in November, Republicans are feeling hopeful.
Since both states have divided governments—Democratic governors and legislatures that are either entirely or partially controlled by Republicans—the courts have been crucial.
Democrats have won arguments contesting the borders of Pennsylvania’s congressional districts and Wisconsin’s legislative districts in the last two years alone, thanks to liberal majorities on both states’ high courts.
Reversing Wisconsin’s restriction on absentee ballot drop boxes and guaranteeing Pennsylvanians the ability to cast a provisional ballot in the event that their mail ballot is denied were further victories for Democrats or their supporters in voting rights issues.
In a tweet this past week on his social media platform X, Musk referenced the Wisconsin drop box verdict from late July: To stop election fraud, it is crucial to vote Republican for the Wisconsin Supreme Court!
When absentee ballot boxes were used in 2020, Arecount, a neutral audit, and a report from a conservative law firm all confirmed that Wisconsin did not experience major fraud and that Democrat Joe Biden won the state’s presidential election.
Musk’s engagement was immediately exploited by the Democratic-backed candidate in Wisconsin’s ostensibly nonpartisan campaign as part of a fundraising push.
The Republican-backed candidate’s remarks earlier this month that those who stormed the US Capitol never had a fair chance in court were also being emphasized by liberals. Former U.S. Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who was on duty at the time of the attack, is scheduled to hold news conferences in Wisconsin on Tuesday to denounce the statements that are critical of the convictions.
Democrats said they will use state high courts as a shield against the Trump administration, a GOP-controlled Congress, and the conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court in the next elections.
As it did in high court contests last year and in the 2023 state Supreme Court campaigns in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the topic of abortion rights is anticipated to be central to this year’s elections. The year after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade, ending over fifty years of a constitutional right to an abortion, those elections were held.
Early Wisconsin race will test nation s political mood
The election to replace a retiring liberal justice in Wisconsin is scheduled on April 1 and will determine whether a 4-3 majority is controlled by conservatives or liberals.
In a state where voters narrowly favored Republican Trump and Democrat U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in November, Nick Ramos, executive director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, which monitors election expenditures, said the contest could go either way.
People nationwide will be watching Wisconsin as a bellwether, a litmus test of the nation’s mood, following the presidential election season, according to Ramos.
Circuit Judge Susan Crawford of Dane County has received the endorsement of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. A number of conservative officeholders and organizations support former Republican attorney general Brad Schimel, the circuit judge for Waukesha County.
Challenges to the state’s 1849 abortion ban and a 2011 statute that essentially abolished collective bargaining for teachers and other public sector employees are two important matters that are now pending in Wisconsin courts.
Big spending expected from outside groups
Three Democrats will be vying for seats in Pennsylvania’s general election in November, putting the party’s 5-2 advantage at risk. In order to secure another 10-year term, Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht must vote yes or no.
Cases challenging regulations that restrict the use of Medicaid to pay for abortions and mandate that certain mail-in ballots be invalidated are still pending in Pennsylvania courts.
Spending in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania exceeded $70 million in 2023 due to the efforts of business associations, political party campaign arms, Planned Parenthood, partisan advocacy groups, labor unions, lawyers’ groups, environmental organizations, and rich GOP donors like Richard Uihlein and Jeffrey Yass.
Spending on a judicial campaign broke national records when the Wisconsin race alone surpassed $51 million.
For the first time in fifteen years, leftists gained majority control of the court after a Democratic-backed judge won the contest, which focused heavily on abortion rights.
Given that the two contenders have already raised more money than was collected at this stage in 2023, the cost of Wisconsin’s contest this year is predicted to be much higher.
In an interview with WISN-AM last year, Schimel stated that outside organizations are dedicated to ensuring that we regain the majority on this court and that he was certain we would have the funds to carry out the necessary actions to win this.
His recent statewide $1.1 million television ad buy was the first of its kind in the race. A week later, Crawford appeared on television.
Over $22 million was spent in Pennsylvania’s 2023 election, which was won by the Democrat whose campaign centered on criticizing the conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court.
Both sides strategize on overcoming voter fatigue
With the election taking place two months after the state was deluged with TV commercials, candidate appearances, direct mail, and phone calls during the presidential campaign, Melissa Baldauff, a Democratic strategist in Wisconsin, stated that she believes both sides are concerned about voter weariness in the state’s Supreme Court contest.
According to Baldauff, the best course of action is for their candidate to visit the state and speak with voters face-to-face.
The power of meeting people where they are, talking to them, and getting out and about is something you should never undervalue, she said.
At a recent state Democratic Party meeting, Michelle McFall, the chair of the Democratic Party in Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania, claimed the focus of conversation was on the upcoming retention elections.
She claimed that Democrats were worried that Trump’s presidential activities would divert their supporters because that’s what we do and that party leaders should continue to concentrate on defending their court majority.
According to McFall, they must increase their efforts to connect with people in both urban and rural areas and learn from Trump’s successful campaign about how to use novel and unorthodox channels to spread their message.
Republicans claim that it is too soon to predict how much funding will be available to support any campaign running in the retention contests. The GOP’s ability to garner high-level support could determine whether a No campaign is successful.
Charlie Gerow, a GOP insider, asked how much President Trump will contribute to this discussion.
From Madison, Wisconsin, Bauer reported.
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