After opposition militants claimed to have made a spectacular breakthrough into Damascus, Syria’s government seemed to have collapsed.
According to Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, the administration is prepared to give its powers to a transitional government and offer its hand to the opposition.
at a video statement, Jalili stated, “I am in my home and I have not left, and this is because I belong to this country.” He urged Syrians not to vandalize public property and stated that he will return to his office to finish his duties in the morning.
According to Rami Abdurrahman, an opposition war monitor for Syria, Assad departed the nation early on Sunday via plane from Damascus. Reports of Assad’s departure were not addressed by Jalili.
The world was caught off guard when opposition militants unexpectedly entered Syria’s capital during a rapidly unfolding crisis. With little opposition, the Syrian army has left important cities. Who are these combatants for the opposition? What happens if they capture some of the biggest cities in Syria and then take over Damascus?
Here’s a look at the dramatic turn of events for Assad and the government in the last ten days, as well as what could happen if Syria’s 13-year civil war flares up again.
The aim? Overthrow the government
Since 2018, when Syrian military retook the region after a protracted siege, this is the first time opposition forces have made it to the outskirts of the capital.
The Syrian National Army, an umbrella organization of Syrian militias supported by Turkey, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the most potent insurgent force in Syria, are in charge of the advancing combatants. In the northwest, both have established themselves. The shock onslaught began on November 27 when gunmen took control of the fourth-biggest city in Syria, Hama, in the center, and Aleppo, the country’s largest metropolis.
The United States and the United Nations consider the HTS to be a terrorist group, and it has its roots in al-Qaida. However, the group claimed to have severed its ties with al-Qaida in recent years. According to observers, HTS has attempted to restructure itself in recent years by emphasizing both military action and the advancement of civilian governance in their region.
In an exclusive interview from Syria on Thursday, HTS leader AbuMohammed al-Golani told CNN that the offensive’s goal is to topple Assad’s regime.
Possible rifts ahead
Their goals may differ, and the HTS and Syrian National Army have alternated between being partners and competitors.
In order to deter Kurdish terrorists who are at conflict with Ankara, the Turkish-backed militias are also interested in establishing a buffer zone close to the Turkish border.Although it has recently called for reconciliation, Turkey has been a major supporter of the militants attempting to topple Assad, and Turkish officials have categorically denied any role in the latest onslaught.
A key question is whether the HTS and the Syrian National Army will cooperate or turn against one another if they are successful in toppling Assad.
Others take advantage
Armed opposition groups have gathered elsewhere, but the rapid onslaught against Syria’s government started in the north.
Both Sweida and Daraa’s southern regions have been captured locally. Even after Assad appeared to solidify his hold on the region, anti-government demonstrations continued to take place in Sweida, the homeland of Syria’s Druze religious minority.
Many people believe that the 2011 revolt against Assad’s regime began in the Sunni Muslim region of Daraa. In 2018, Syrian government forces retook Daraa, however insurgents continued to hold some districts. A ceasefire agreement negotiated by Russia had kept Daraa in a state of uneasy silence in recent years.
Additionally, the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led organization supported by the United States, control a large portion of eastern Syria and have previously clashed with the majority of other armed organizations in the nation.
Only three of Syria’s fourteen provincial capitals—Damascus, Latakia, and Tartus—are currently under the government’s authority.
What s next?
Hassan Abdul-Ghani, an insurgent commander, wrote on the Telegram messaging app that opposition fighters have begun surrounding Damascus as part of the last phase of their offensive.
Additionally, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, located in Britain, and a pro-government media reported that Syrian military retreated from a substantial portion of the central city of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, on Saturday. The connection between Damascus, Assad’s capital, and the coastal area, where he has broad support, would be severed if that city were taken.
Politically and socially, homes in coastal cities will be a giant red line. Anas Joudeh, a citizen of Damascus, stated that if this line is crossed politically, we are discussing the end of Syria as we know it today.
Given that Hezbollah, located in Lebanon, has been weakened by its war with Israel, which is currently governed by a precarious ceasefire, and that allies Russia and Iran are preoccupied with other crises, Assad seems to be essentially on his own.
Geir Pedersen, the U.N. special envoy for Syria, says the situation is changing every minute and calls for urgent negotiations in Geneva to guarantee a peaceful political transition. On the sidelines of the Doha Summit, he met with senior diplomats and foreign ministers from eight important nations, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran.
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