On Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to the southwest to play the Cincinnati Bengals, their AFC North rivals, in an attempt to bounce back from a shocking loss to the Cleveland Browns.
Pittsburgh (8-3) lost 24-19 to the Browns in chilly Cleveland on Thursday Night Football, loosening its hold on the top slot in the AFC North, which it still holds alone, a half-game ahead of the Baltimore Ravens (8-4).
With nine days off between their game in Cleveland and their second straight intradivisional Ohio road game, the Steelers enjoyed a pleasant mini-bye following their TNF match. However, the Bengals (4-7) just finished their true bye week, which they desperately needed after losing three of four games and two in a row.
Queen City Kitties
The Steelers have recently suffered, but since their unexpected AFC title in 2021–2022, the Bengals have emerged as one of the most popular teams to bet on. Pittsburgh has won eight of its last ten games at Paycor Stadium, is 3-1 in their last four encounters, and swept the Bengals last season.
Joe Burrow’s thumb injury, which kept him out of the final seven games, including the Bengals’ 34-11 loss in Pittsburgh in Week 16, was a contributing factor in Cincinnati’s difficulties last season. The Bengals are still losing, although in very close games, and Burrow is playing at the top of his game.
With two one-point losses to the Chiefs and Ravens on the road, a three-point overtime loss at home to Baltimore, and a seven-point loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11 that was decided by a last-second 29-yard rushing touchdown by J.K. Dobbins, the Bengals are 1-6 in one-score games this season.
Despite losing to Cleveland by five points last weekend, the Steelers have often been on the winning side of one-score games. Pittsburgh is 5-3 in games with a single touchdown, including two wins (against Atlanta in Week 1 and against Baltimore in Week 11).
Additionally, the Steelers are 3-2 while playing away from home and have won as many road games as they have won at Acrisure Stadium this season.
Bengals vs Steelers odds
The Steelers will start the game as an underdog against the Bengals, who are in third place in the AFC North, despite the fact that they are a strong road club. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Cincinnati is favored by up to three points and has moneyline odds as low as -162.
The Bengals are more talented than their record suggests, but the Steelers don’t appear likely to lose two in a row. Pittsburgh must also win the game since a loss and a Baltimore victory over the Philadelphia Eagles may knock the team out of first place.
Given that they have games against the Cowboys and Titans after this game, and then host the Browns in Week 16, the Bengals should be desperate since they most likely cannot afford to lose more than once more in the remaining games.
Despite Pittsburgh’s fourth-ranked scoring defense, the Over/Under (48, -110/-110) also predicts a high-scoring game. The Steelers are scoring almost 26 points per game since Russell Wilson took over the offense in Week 7, while the Bengals are sixth in the league in terms of points per game (27.0).
However, only two of the last ten games between these clubs have included 48 points or more.
Defense Wins Championships
With an abundance of weapons, the Bengals are a glamorous, fast-paced offensive club. With just four interceptions thrown this season, Burrow is tied for the NFL lead in passing touchdowns (27) and ranks second in passing yards per game (275.3). He is playing at an insane level.
Along with wideout Tee Higgins and up-and-coming receiver Andrei Iosivas, Burrow also boasts tight end Mike Gesicki, change-of-pace back Chase Brown, and perhaps the best wide receiver in football, Ja Marr Chase.
However, Cincinnati’s defense is having a lot of trouble. In terms of yards-against per game (355.5) and points-against per game (26.9), the Bengals are ranked 23rd and 28th in the NFL, respectively. They have given up at least 24 points in eight of their 11 games this season and at least 34 points in three of their last four outings.
The magic number for the Steelers is 20 points since they are 4-1 when they score that many points and 3-0 when Wilson is starting at quarterback when they score three or more touchdowns.
The Steelers, who rank fourth in running yards allowed per game (90.3), are outstanding against the run and are likely to thwart Cincinnati’s nonexistent run offense. It will be interesting to see if Pittsburgh’s ball-hawking secondary, which is tied for fifth place in interceptions (12), can force Burrow to turn the ball over, something he hasn’t done in the last two weeks, when he plays the Steelers’ 17th-ranked passing defense (214.9 yards against per game).
Bengals vs Steelers betting
Burrow still has two picks in Cincinnati’s last four games, and Pittsburgh has picked off Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, and Bo Nix. Given his exceptional play and ability to protect the ball, it is very tempting to wager on Burrow to throw an interception (-115 at bet365).
Burrow leads the NFL in attempts (408), and the Bengals might lag behind the game plan, so it makes sense to wager on his yards (249.5, -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook) and attempts (36.5, -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
Given that the third-year wide out is averaging 70.5 yards per game and has over 70 yards in four of Wilson’s five starts, it makes sense for the Steelers to take George Pickens’ receiving-yards prop (Over 69.5 -120 at bet365).
Jaylen Warren’s rushing + receiving yards prop should be worth a play if it ends up at roughly 50.5 yards because the weather should be better for throwing the ball for Pittsburgh than it was in Cleveland.
In every game Wilson has started, Warren has at least 59 all-purpose yards, including his 64-yard performance against the Browns, which surpassed tandem running back Najee Harris’s 54 rushing and receiving yards.
Bengals vs Steelers Prediction
Considering the weather conditions in the second half, if you watched the Thursday Night Football game between the Browns and Steelers, you probably heard a lot of talk about an AFC North-style game.
With their outstanding, eighth-ranked running offense (135.2 rushing yards per game), top-tier defense (headed by T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, and Minkah Fitzpatrick), and an underappreciated secondary (driven by Fitzpatrick, Joey Porter Jr., and Donte Jackson), the Steelers are well-positioned to win AFC North games in December.
Given that they are 1-2 in the division and 1-4 at home this season, the Bengals have yet to demonstrate their ability to win AFC North games. However, given that Cincinnati’s four victories have come against the Raiders, Giants, Panthers, and Browns—four teams with a combined record of ten victories—they are also not designed to endure a hard-nosed, cold-weather game against a formidable foe.
Additionally, it is a bonus if a bookmaker offers us points or plus-money odds for betting on the Steelers. In a close, low-scoring match, we plan to support Pittsburgh on the spread and to win hands-down.
Prediction: Steelers 24, Bengals 21
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