The NFL season’s fifth week has begun, and it offers both excitement and potential pitfalls for wagerers.
Both teams will be looking to continue their winning streaks since there are just two teams in the league that have not lost. The Vikings’ game against Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in London begins early on Sunday morning. The final game of the week is Monday Night Football, where Kansas City plays New Orleans in a matchup that is guaranteed to be exciting.
The underdogs have had a great season thus far, going 14-2-1 against the spread when scoring six or more points, which is an incredible 87.5 percent success rate. The trend is consistent across all games at Pennsylvania’s leading bookmakers, where underdogs have an ATS record of 33-27-3 so far. Additionally, there are a number of factors to take into account when placing bets because four teams—the Eagles, Lions, Chargers, and Titans—are taking this week off.
Let’s dissect the five wagers you should steer clear of and provide five wise choices to focus on in Week 5 of the NFL.
5 bets to avoid, 5 bets to make instead for NFL Week 5
1. Avoid: Jets +3 vs. Minnesota | Bet: Vikings -3 (+100, Caesars)
It is encouraging for the Vikings across the pond that betting oddsfavorites have a good record in international games, going 34-10-1 straight up and 30-15 against the spread. Minnesota’s offense has flourished under quarterback Sam Darnold, who is having a surprise breakout season, while their defense boasts the greatest DVOA in the league.
Leading the NFL in hits, sacks, and pressures, the Vikings defense is not only strong but also aggressive. Anticipate defensive coordinator Brian Flores to apply more pressure against the Jets offense, particularly since they had trouble handling Denver’s rush during last week’s loss to the Broncos.
#VikingsQB The NFC Player of the Month award goes to Sam Darnold.Despite all the hardships he has faced as a young 27-year-old journeyman in the game, Darnold is undoubtedly off to an excellent 4-0 start in Minnesota.The #Jetsteam in London, who drafted him, will be his next opponent inpic.twitter.com/HshwBGIfBD.
Due in large part to a lack of depth at receiver and inadequate pass protection, the Jets offense, led by Aaron Rodgers, has fallen short of expectations. Furthermore, New York’s offensive line has been erratic, and Rodgers has a passer rating of 92.9 after four weeks, which is the worst start of his career.
The Vikings are in a strong offensive and defensive position going into this game. The Vikings are ready to cover the smallpoint spread since the Jets are going to London and will be up against a much stronger opponent.
2. Avoid: Bengals +2.5 (-105) vs. Baltimore | Bet: Under 50.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Given their offensive firepower, it may be tempting to support the Bengals, but the matchup isn’t as advantageous as it seems. Baltimore’s defense has been strong, finishing in the top 10 in EPA per play, even if Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense have recently regained their rhythm. Burrow has a poor track record versus the Ravens; in his last four games, he has averaged just 215 passing yards and has not thrown more than one touchdown.
However, as demonstrated by their performance against Josh Allen last week, the Ravens’ defense, which is ranked 25th in terms of dropback success rate, is capable of holding high-octane offenses in check. Additionally, past betting patterns tend to favor games with lower scores. In the last two seasons, totals of 50 or more have gone 16–4 to the under (80 percent), and this year they are 4-0, keeping under by over two touchdowns per game.
Even though the Bengals have been playing more overs lately, it’s crucial to acknowledge the Ravens’ ability to manage the pace and keep the Bengals from achieving their full offensive potential. The under seems like the safer option in this divisional matchup, which is probably going to be a defensive grind.
3. Avoid: Commanders -3 vs. Cleveland | Bet: Browns +3.5 (-115, BetMGM)
With rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels taking the league by storm and leading the Commanders to an unexpected 3-1 start, it’s simple to understand why Washington is the clear favorite. It’s important to remember, though, that Daniels has so far seen rather feeble defenses. A far more difficult test will come from the Browns defense, which is among the top 8 in terms of success rate. The Commanders offense may face difficulties because Cleveland’s defense leads the league in both run stop and pass rush victory rates.
The Commanders will become the third club since 1950 to start 4-1 or better with a rookie quarterback if they defeat the Browns on Sunday.2016: Dak Prescott and the Cowboys1973: Joe Ferguson and the BillsTwitter: pic.twitter.com/2CViC68r8k
Despite the fact that Cleveland’s offense has suffered under Deshaun Watson, a comeback is possible. Watson and the Browns have an advantageous matchup against the Commanders defense, which has the lowest EPA per drive and struggles with pass defense.
Given that the Browns’ defensive edge could be the difference in a close game, this is the perfect time to buy low on Cleveland, possibly even on the moneyline, as the spread changed from Browns -3 over the summer to Commanders -3.
4. Avoid: Bears -3.5 vs. Carolina | Bet: Panthers +3.5 (-105, bet365)
Despite the Bears’ past dominance over the Panthers, this season is different. The Rams defense is ranked 31st in DVOA, so this performance may be deceptive, but Chicago’s offense found some life against them. Instead of dominating offensively, the Bears took advantage of turnovers and advantageous field position.
Since Andy Dalton took over as quarterback, Carolina’s offense has improved dramatically, averaging more than five yards per play. Dalton has the time he needs to locate his targets thanks to the Panthers offensive line, which is ranked second in pass protection. While the team only scored 61 points over Bryce Young’s last seven games, Carolina has scored 60 points in Dalton’s two starts.
Carolina has a realistic opportunity to cover or even win outright because of the Panthers’ improved offensive performance and the Bears’ strong but not invincible defense. Taking Carolina with the points is the better course of action because of Dalton’s calm hand, which has given the Panthers stability, and their strong running game.
5. Avoid: Dolphins at New England Total Over 36.5 | Bet: Under 36.5 (-109, BetRivers)
This game is likely to be low-scoring because both the Dolphins and Patriots are having offensive difficulties. Given that this is the lowest total we’ve seen this season, some Pennsylvania sports bettors may be tempted to go over here, but the Dolphins offense is in disarray and New England isn’t much better.
Without Tua Tagovailoa, Miami has struggled to mount an offensive attack, averaging only 15.8 points per game under backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. The Dolphins’ offensive problems have been made worse by their inability to create huge plays or build a rhythm, and they are 0–4 against the spread. In contrast, New England’s offense, which is captained by Jacoby Brissett, has a DVOA and success rate that are close to the bottom of the league. Their ability to move the ball effectively has been hampered by serious offensive line problems.
Over the past four seasons, the under has been a consistent trend in games with low totals, going 32-12-1 in games with totals of 37 points or less. It makes sense to go with the under in this game since both defenses outperform the offenses and there is a low-scoring trend that is unabated.