The fifth-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish will play the USC Trojans in a rivalry game in Los Angeles after destroying Army last week.
Despite having a preseason ranking, USC dropped out of the AP Poll after losing to Michigan and Minnesota by a single point.
Nevertheless, the Trojans are strong rivals who have produced outstanding home football in 2024.
Can a home victory by the Trojans, who have had a comparatively poor season, jeopardize Notre Dame’s chances of making the College Football Playoffs?
For our Notre Dame vs. USC preview and predictions, continue reading below.
Notre Dame On A Roll
Notre Dame has won nine straight games, eight of which have been double-digit wins, after falling to the Northern Illinois Huskies at home in their second game of the 2024 season.
With the exception of one opponent (Louisville), the Fighting Irish have played excellent defense, limiting all opponents to 14 points or less.
In 2024, Notre Dame has the second-highest coverage grade and the tenth-highest total defense grade (PFF).
Riley Leonard, the quarterback, has performed admirably running the ball and limiting turnovers on the offensive end.
Leonard and the Irish running back room have combined for the 11th-highest number of rushing yards per game.
Even while the Irish seem like a team that may fight for a championship, they still have some unanswered questions going into the CFP, such as how their offensive will perform against a top-tier rush defense.
Fortunately, USC only has the 88th-best run defense grade in the country, so they won’t have to worry about that.
Notre Dame vs. USC Odds
Notre Dame is 7.5 points ahead of the Trojans going into this rivalry game.
With an 8-2-1 ATS record in 2024, the Fighting Irish have been among the top teams at covering the spread.
Additionally, USC has covered seven of their 11 games so far, despite performing below expectations.
With the total resting at 51.5 points, the oddsmakers anticipate a game that will be rather high scoring on Saturday.
USC’s over record (5-6) is just below.500, while Notre Dame’s is 6-5.
Can Lincoln Riley Win Without Elite QBs?
To bring his skills from Oklahoma to Los Angeles, USC head coach Lincoln Riley inked a huge nine-figure deal with the Trojans in 2022.
His first two seasons as head coach of the Trojans went quite well; they finished with an 11-3 record in 2022, although they only managed eight victories the previous season.
But without a top quarterback like Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, or Caleb Williams at the helm, Riley has had a difficult season.
Whether Riley will be the long-term solution is still up in the air. The temperature of his seat is rising steadily.
Notre Dame vs. USC Betting
Riley Leonard has been useful this season, particularly as a runner, but the Fighting Irish have not found him to be a particularly good passer.
As of 11 games this season, Leonard has the 40th-highest passing grade (PFF) in the nation. To date, his passing totals have been 1,937 yards, 14 touchdowns, and four interceptions.
Leonard hasn’t performed well in the air, and Notre Dame has played the 78th-hardest schedule thus far (ESPN).
Furthermore, when the Fighting Irish faced tough opponents like Texas A&M, Louisville, and Army, Leonard was unable to attain this total.
This threshold is even more puzzling because Leonard has only crossed it four times in 11 games this season.
This game will take place on USC’s home ground, but their play on both sides of the ball is questionable when they travel.
Additionally, only Penn State has scored more than 21 points in The Coliseum against USC.
Riley Leonard is the pick at -148, FanDuel Sportsbook, under 200.5 passing yards.
Notre Dame vs. USC Prediction
This season, USC’s only home loss occurred in overtime versus Penn State, currently ranked fourth.
There is a noticeable difference on both sides of the ball when USC is playing at home. On average, the Trojans score almost 15 more points and gain 60 more yards overall when playing at home.
They also have a significantly stronger red zone defense and give up five fewer points per game at home.
Even if USC loses this game, it should be close. At home, the Trojans are a very different team, and they will surely want to give a competitor the spoils.
Pick: BetRivers Sportsbook, USC Trojans +7.5 (-109)
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