When the NFL’s top AFC contenders square off on Christmas Day, Week 17 begins with a special presentation on Netflix. The Houston Texans (9-6, 6-7-2 ATS) play the Baltimore Ravens (10-5, 8-6-1 ATS) after the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5, 10-5 ATS) face the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1, 7-8 ATS) at 1 PM.
These games offer plenty of chances for bettors who want to get more out of their Christmas football viewing. Find out which five prop bets are the best for the NFL’s Christmas Day games.
Best prop bets for NFL Christmas Day games
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140) according to FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes is below 256.5 passing yards (-110) on FanDuel.
Russell Wilson over 12.5 rushing yards (-110) according to DraftKings
Nico Collins over 0.5 anytime touchdowns (+130) according to FanDuel
Caesars: Mark Andrews touchdown at any time (+180)
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140)
FanDuel Sportsbook is where
Why: Lamar Jackson has had a fantastic campaign and is once again in the running for MVP. With a 37-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the seven-year veteran, who has already won two MVP awards, is still in the running for another one. Additionally, Jackson scored three running touchdowns.
Jackson has at least two touchdown throws in four consecutive games going into this Christmas Day matchup in Houston. This season, he has above a 1.5 passing touchdown prop in 10 out of 15 games. Additionally, in their most recent encounter, he delivered two touchdown passes against this Texans team.
The Texans give up 1.9 passing touchdowns a game, which is the most in the NFL. Houston tied for the league’s most passing touchdowns with 29 against. Because the Texans have one of the best run defenses in the league, opponents are turning to their passing schemes in an attempt to score points. In two of its last three home games, Houston has given up more than 1.5 passing touchdowns to opposition quarterbacks.
In eight of his last nine games, Jackson has passed for more than 1.5 touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes under 256.5 passing yards (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook is where
Why: Patrick Mahomes has guided the Chiefs to the top of the AFC standings once more, but he hasn’t used aerial threats to go past rival defenses. Mahomes averages career-low passing yards per game (240.5), yards per completion (9.9), and yards per attempt (6.6) going into this Christmas Day game in Pittsburgh. Despite having a 14-1 record, Kansas City’s passing attack is not among the top 10 in the league in terms of total production.
Although Mahomes’ numbers have been declining for a few seasons, the difference becomes even more noticeable when he is not at home. On the road, Mahomes only manages 214.6 passing yards per game on average. In five of his seven away games this season, he has been under a passing yards prop.
In addition, Pittsburgh has a strong defense against him. The Steelers have held opposition quarterbacks below their passing yards expectation in four of their previous six games and give up 220.7 passing yards per game (20th).
In three of his previous five games, including the last two consecutive, Mahomes has fallen short of his passing yards prop.
Russell Wilson over 12.5 rushing yards (-110)
Where: Sportsbook DraftKings
Why: The Steelers’ offense was revitalized when Russell Wilson took over as their main quarterback. Pittsburgh has scored 229 points in Wilson’s nine starts this season, averaging 25.4 points per game, which is the 11th-highest total in the league. Wilson’s legs have recently also been used as a weapon, even if the majority of that damage has been done through the air.
This season, Wilson has only accumulated 84 rushing yards, but the majority of those yards (57) have come in the previous three weeks. In Pittsburgh s last game, against a solid Ravens defense, Wilson registered a season-high 27 rushing yards, including a 19-yard scamper that would ve put him over this rushing yards prop by itself.
In three consecutive games, Kansas City’s defense has let opposition passers surpass their running yards prop. In their last five games, the Chiefs have given up an average of 13.8 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Wilson has averaged 4.3 rushing attempts per game over the past three weeks, which translates to 19 rushing yards per game.
Three games in a row, Wilson has exceeded his running yards prop.
Nico Collins over 0.5 anytime touchdowns (+130)
FanDuel Sportsbook is where
Why: Of Houston’s top three receivers, Nico Collins is the final player remaining. Tank Dell hurt his left knee on a touchdown catch last week, and the Texans had already lost Stefon Diggs earlier in the season. As the team s No. 1 receiver, Collins has seen the most attention from opposing secondaries, but he s still been effective when on the field.
Collins has had four or more catches on six or more targets in each of his previous five outings going into this match. The talented wideout has three touchdown receptions over his last four games and faces a Ravens secondary that s struggled to contain opposing passing attacks.
The Ravens have allowed 17 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Baltimore s top cornerback, Brandon Stephens, will likely shadow Collins for this game. Stephens has surrendered 56 catches for 712 receiving yards and three touchdowns as the primary defender this season.
Collins has gone over a 0.5 anytime touchdowns prop in all five home games this season.
Mark Andrews anytime touchdown (+180)
For example, Caesars Sportsbook
Why: By most accounts, Mark Andrews 2024 season has not met production expectations. After being one of the most effective tight ends in the league over the last few seasons, Andrews slipped behind teammate Isaiah Likely in the pecking order early in the year. However, over the last nine weeks, Andrews seems to have regained his relevance in a potent passing attack.
Andrews enters this Christmas Day battle with the Texans on a four-game scoring streak, something that s kept bettors atPennsylvania s top sportsbooksbacking this prop very happy. While he isn t seeing the same volume of targets as he s seen in the past, Andrews is making the most of his opportunities. Lamar Jackson consistently looks for Andrews inside the 20, as the tight end leads the league with nine red zone touchdowns.
The Texans have allowed six receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season, tied for seventh-most in the league. Over the last four weeks, two opposing tight ends have gone over a 0.5 anytime touchdown prop versus Houston.
Andrews has gone over 0.5 anytime touchdowns in eight of his last 10 games after going scoreless through the season s first five weeks.
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