Written by AP National Writer WILL GRAVES
The future of transgender athletes was one of President-elect Donald Trump’s most well-liked talking themes during his campaign.
In the months and weeks leading up to the election, Trump brought up the subject several times, implying during his rallies that preventing men from participating in women’s sports would be one of his second term’s objectives. Spending millions on advertising made a problem that only impacts a small percentage of rivals into a wedge issue.
According to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide, the vast majority of Trump supporters and more than half of voters overall believe that support for transgender rights in society and government has gone too far.
It’s uncertain exactly what Trump will do when he takes office on January 20. Although the president-elect stated during his campaign that the procedure would be simple, his transition team has not provided any details.
It may be in some respects. It might be even murkier in others.
What did Trump say during the campaign?
A great deal. It seems that Trump saw the debate over the rights of transgender individuals in general and trans athletes in particular as one that could attract support and attention beyond his typical constituency.
Trump frequently used terminology on gender identity that is seen damaging and incorrect by LGBTQ+ advocates. Additionally, despite the fact that both Li Yu-ting of Taiwan and Imane Khelif of Algeria were assigned female at birth and identify as women, he incorrectly classified two Olympic female boxers as men and said that their participation in the Paris Games was insulting to women.
At an October event in Madison Square Garden, Trump stepped up his rhetoric as election day drew near. He told the crowd, “We will keep men out of women’s sports and we will get… transgender insanity the hell out of our schools.”
What are the presidential powers in this area?
Trump declared on Day 1 that he will stop providing federal funds to any school that exposes our children to unacceptable racial, sexual, or political content, such as transgender craziness or critical race theory.
This has multiple facets, but the most pressing one is his administration’s interpretation of Title IX, the law most recognized for its efforts to prohibit sexual harassment on college campuses and promote gender parity in athletics.
It is within the power of each government to interpret the historic law in its own way. The push-pull dynamic is demonstrated by the last two presidential administrations, including Trump’s first.
Betsy DeVos, the education secretary during Trump s first term, issued aTitle IX policyin 2020 that narrowed the definition of sexual harassment and required colleges to investigate claims only if they re reported to certain officials.
The Biden administration rolled back that policy in Aprilwith one of its ownthat stipulated the rights of LGBTQ+ students would be protected by federal law and provided new safeguards for victims of campus sexual assault. Transgender athletes were not specifically addressed by the policy. Still, more than a half-dozen Republican-led statesimmediately challengedthe new rule in court.
Trump may once more change how the Title IXsports rule is perceived and applied.
All Trump has to say is, We are going to read the regulation traditionally, said Doriane Lambelet Coleman, a professor at Duke Law School.
What s the difference between sex and gender and how would it affect Title IX?
Under the first Trump administration, the government interpreted sex as the gender someone was assigned at birth.
The Biden administration chose to interpret sex as gender identity under Title IX, which could be interpreted to protect trans athletes from being discriminated against if they wanted to participate in a sport that aligned with their gender identity, not their sex assigned at birth.
It is widely expected that Trump will roll back the definition of sex to align with the sex someone was assigned at birth.
How many transgender athletes are actively competing?
That number is up for debate.
While NCAA president Charlie Baker testified in Congress on Tuesday that he was aware of fewer than 10 active NCAA athletes who identified as transgender, the NCAA does not keep track of data on transgender athletes among the 544,000 currently competing on 19,000 teams at various levels across the nation.
A2019 surveyof high school students by the Gay, Lesbian and Straight Education Network (GLSEN) noted just 5% of respondents said they participated in a sport that aligned with their gender identity.
It might be easier to do the math from a macro level. A2022 report by the Williams Instituteestimated about 300,000 high school-age students (13-17) identified as transgender. How many of those young people participate in sports is unknown, but it is likelya tiny fraction.
Still, any case of a transgender athlete competing or even believed to be competing draws outsized attention, fromLia Thomas swimming for the University of Pennsylvaniato the just-completed season ofthe San Jose State volleyball team.
What are the rules at the high school level?
It varies from state to state. Abouthalf the stateshave enacted legislation that effectively bars transgender athletes from competing in the category that aligns with their gender identity.
The AP reported in 2021 that in many cases, the states introducing a ban on transgender athletescould not cite instanceswhere their participation was an issue. When Utah state legislatorsoverrode a vetoby Gov. Spencer Cox in 2022, the state had only one transgender girl playing in K-12 sports who would be affected by the ban. It did not regulate participation for transgender boys.
This is a solution looking for a problem, said Cheryl Cooky, a professor at Purdue University who studies the intersection of gender, sports, media and culture.
What about collegiately?
The NCAA establisheda policy in 2010that requires trans athletes who were assigned male at birth to complete at least one year of testosterone suppression therapy before being eligible to compete on a women s team. Trans athletes who were assigned female at birth and transitioned to male can compete on a men s team but if they have received testosterone treatment are ineligible to compete on a women s team.
The athletes are required to meet their chosen sport s standard for documented testosterone levels at various points during a season.
In 2022, the NCAA revised the policy in what the organization called an attempt to be aligned with national sports governing bodies (NGBs). If the NGB does not have a trans-athlete policy, then it scales up to the international federation that oversees the sport. If there is no international federation policy, previously established Olympic policy criteria would be followed.
The NCAA s decision to kick it up to the NGBs proved more restrictive in some sports like swimming. A policyintroduced by World Aquatics in 2023 only allows transgender athletes to compete in women s races if the athlete can prove they have not experienced any part of male puberty.
That s at the NCAA-level. Things are far more definitive in schools that compete in the National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics (NAIA). The NAIA s Council of Presidentsvoted unanimously earlier this yearto effectively ban transgender athletes from competing.
And how about the Olympic level?
The International Olympic Committee has essentially passed the buck, deferring to the international federations for each sport.
That could change, however, when a new IOC president comes on to replace the retiring Thomas Bach.
Former track star Sebastian Coe, now the leader of World Athletics, is among the candidates up for election in March. Coe has been a strong proponent of limiting participation to cisgender women.
What might the future look like?
The near future figures to be volatile, with thestate-by-state mapon transgender athletes mirroring whatabortion access looks like post-Dobbs.Democratshave been at oddsabout how to address the topic.
There is a chance that a Republican-led Congress could introduce another form of the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act that was proposed in 2021 and 2023.The 2023 versionof the bill which would prohibit school athletic programs from allowing individuals whose biological sex at birth was male to participate in programs that are for women or girls passed the House but didn t make it to the Senate floor for a vote.
Republicans hold a slim majority in the Senate and remain short of the 60-vote threshold needed for passage, but given the white-hot discussion around transgender athletes the issue could come to the fore quickly. It could come even as Sarah McBride, a Democrat from Maryland, becomes thefirst openly transgender personin Congress.
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AP Sports Writer Graham Dunbar contributed to this report.
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