By WILL GRAVES, AP National Writer
One of President-electDonald Trumps most popular talking points during his campaign centered on the future of transgender athletes.
In the months and weeks leading up to the election, Trump brought up the subject several times, implying during his rallies that preventing men from participating in women’s sports would be one of his second term’s objectives. Spending millions on advertising made a problem that only impacts a small percentage of rivals into a wedge issue.
More than half of voters overall and the vast majority of Trump supporters said support for transgender rights in government and society has gone too far, according toAP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide.
It’s uncertain exactly what Trump will do when he takes office on January 20. Although the president-elect stated during his campaign that the procedure would be simple, his transition team has not provided any details.
It may be in some respects. It might be even murkier in others.
What did Trump say during the campaign?
A great deal. It seems that Trump saw the debate over the rights of transgender individuals in general and trans athletes in particular as one that could attract support and attention beyond his typical constituency.
Trump frequently used terminology on gender identity that is seen damaging and incorrect by LGBTQ+ advocates. He also falsely labeledtwo Olympic female boxersas men, and said their ability to participate in the Paris Games was demeaning to women even though bothImane Khelifof Algeria andLi Yu-ting of Taiwanwere assigned female at birth and identify as women.
Trump ramped up the rhetoric as election day approached, telling the crowd at aMadison Square Garden rallyin October: We will get … transgender insanity the hell out of our schools, and we will keep men out of women s sports.
What are the presidential powers in this area?
Trumphas said on Day 1that he would cut federal funding to any school pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity, and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content on our children.
There are several layers to this, but the most immediate would be how his administration interpretsTitle IX, the law best known for its role in pursuing gender equity in athletics and preventing sexual harassment on campuses.
It is within the power of each government to interpret the historic law in its own way. The push-pull dynamic is demonstrated by the last two presidential administrations, including Trump’s first.
Betsy DeVos, the education secretary during Trump s first term, issued aTitle IX policyin 2020 that narrowed the definition of sexual harassment and required colleges to investigate claims only if they re reported to certain officials.
The Biden administration rolled back that policy in Aprilwith one of its ownthat stipulated the rights of LGBTQ+ students would be protected by federal law and provided new safeguards for victims of campus sexual assault. The policy stopped short of explicitlyaddressing transgender athletes. Still, more than a half-dozen Republican-led statesimmediately challengedthe new rule in court.
Trump could againshift the way the Title IXsports regulation is viewed and enforced.
Trump’s only statement, according to Duke Law School professor Doriane Lambelet Coleman, is, “We are going to read the regulation traditionally.”
What s the difference between sex and gender and how would it affect Title IX?
Sex was defined by the government as the gender a person was assigned at birth under the first Trump administration.
In order to safeguard trans athletes from discrimination if they wish to play a sport that corresponds with their gender identity rather than the sex they were assigned at birth, the Biden administration decided to interpret sex as gender identity under Title IX.
It is generally anticipated that Trump will revert the definition of sex to the sex assigned at birth.
How many transgender athletes are actively competing?
That figure is debatable.
While NCAA president Charlie Baker testified in Congress on Tuesday that he was aware of fewer than 10 active NCAA athletes who identified as transgender, the NCAA does not keep track of data on transgender athletes among the 544,000 currently competing on 19,000 teams at various levels across the nation.
A2019 surveyof high school students by the Gay, Lesbian and Straight Education Network (GLSEN) noted just 5% of respondents said they participated in a sport that aligned with their gender identity.
The arithmetic may be simpler if done at a macro level. A2022 report by the Williams Instituteestimated about 300,000 high school-age students (13-17) identified as transgender. How many of those young people participate in sports is unknown, but it is likelya tiny fraction.
Still, any case of a transgender athlete competing or even believed to be competing draws outsized attention, fromLia Thomas swimming for the University of Pennsylvaniato the just-completed season ofthe San Jose State volleyball team.
What are the rules at the high school level?
States differ in this regard. Abouthalf the stateshave enacted legislation that effectively bars transgender athletes from competing in the category that aligns with their gender identity.
The AP reported in 2021 that in many cases, the states introducing a ban on transgender athletescould not cite instanceswhere their participation was an issue. When Utah state legislatorsoverrode a vetoby Gov. Spencer Cox in 2022, the state had only one transgender girl playing in K-12 sports who would be affected by the ban. Transgender guys were not subject to any restrictions on participation.
According to Purdue University professor Cheryl Cooky, who focuses on the interaction of gender, sports, media, and society, this is a solution seeking a problem.
What about collegiately?
The NCAA establisheda policy in 2010that requires trans athletes who were assigned male at birth to complete at least one year of testosterone suppression therapy before being eligible to compete on a women s team. Transgender athletes who were assigned female at birth and changed their gender can play on the men’s team, but they cannot compete on the women’s squad if they have had testosterone treatment.
At different times over a season, the competitors must meet the documented testosterone levels required by their chosen sport.
The NCAA updated the rule in 2022 in what it described as an effort to harmonize with national sports governing organizations (NGBs). The international body that regulates the sport takes control if the NGB does not have a trans-athlete policy. The previously defined Olympic policy criteria would be applied in the absence of a worldwide federation policy.
In certain sports, like swimming, the NCAA’s choice to push things up to the NGBs proved to be more restrictive. A policyintroduced by World Aquatics in 2023only allows transgender athletes to compete in women s races if the athlete can prove they have not experienced any part of male puberty.
At the NCAA level, that is. Things are far more definitive in schools that compete in the National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics (NAIA). The NAIA s Council of Presidentsvoted unanimously earlier this yearto effectively ban transgender athletes from competing.
And how about the Olympic level?
The International Olympic Committee has essentially passed the buck, deferring to the international federations for each sport.
That could change, however, when a new IOC president comes on to replace the retiring Thomas Bach.
Former track star Sebastian Coe, now the leader of World Athletics, is among the candidates up for election in March. Coe has been a strong proponent of limiting participation to cisgender women.
What might the future look like?
The near future figures to be volatile, with thestate-by-state mapon transgender athletes mirroring whatabortion access looks like post-Dobbs.Democratshave been at oddsabout how to address the topic.
There is a chance that a Republican-led Congress could introduce another form of the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act that was proposed in 2021 and 2023.The 2023 versionof the bill which would prohibit school athletic programs from allowing individuals whose biological sex at birth was male to participate in programs that are for women or girls passed the House but didn t make it to the Senate floor for a vote.
Republicans hold a slim majority in the Senate and remain short of the 60-vote threshold needed for passage, but given the white-hot discussion around transgender athletes the issue could come to the fore quickly. It could come even as Sarah McBride, a Democrat from Maryland, becomes thefirst openly transgender personin Congress.
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AP Sports Writer Graham Dunbar contributed to this report.
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